Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 7:45 PM ETDavis Wade Stadium, StarkvillePrime timeConference gameFinal
#19Missouri
MIZ · 3-0
24
Final
#24Mississippi State
MSST · 3-0
31
Final
Model called it
Spread
MSST -6
Moneyline
MIZ +190 / MSST -230
Total
O/U 58.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:45 PM ET
Final
MIZ 24 / MSST 31
From the booth
The model favored MSST to win, and the call landed.
Mississippi State's got this one favored at 67 percent at home, and the model likes what it's seeing with the Bulldogs' defense tightening up over the last five games. Missouri comes in ranked higher in the polls, but Vegas has State favored by a touchdown, and that market consensus is backing the home team here. The Rebels' recent point differential is a slight concern, but in this SEC battle, Starkville's defensive play down the stretch has got them positioned as the pick.
Why the model leans MSST
- Favors Mississippi State: MSST+0.05Betting-market win probability
- Favors Mississippi State: MSST+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Mississippi State: MSSTDefensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games