Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ETDavis Wade Stadium, StarkvilleConference gameFinal
#7Alabama
ALA · 4-0
56
Final
#16Mississippi State
MSST · 4-0
23
Final
Model called it
Spread
ALA -5.5
Moneyline
ALA -218 / MSST +180
Total
O/U 61.5
Weather
82.4°F · 5.4 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
ALA 56 / MSST 23
From the booth
The model favored ALA to win, and the call landed.
Undefeated in the SEC, and Mississippi State's gotten hot at the right time, climbing to 16 in the AP poll. Alabama's favored by 5.5 and sits at 7, and the model backs the Crimson Tide at 61%, leaning on their season-long strength and point differential. Both teams sit 4-0 with 4-game winning streaks, but Alabama's been dominant on offense, averaging 48 points over the last 3 games to Mississippi State's 36.7.
Why the model leans ALA
- Favors Alabama: ALA+0.13Vegas point spread
- Favors Alabama: ALA+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Alabama: ALA+0.01Point differential, last 5 games