Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 4:15 PM ETWilliams-Brice Stadium, ColumbiaConference gameFinal
#24Kentucky
UK · 3-1
35
Final
South Carolina
SC · 2-2
34
Final
Model missed
Spread
SC -2.5
Moneyline
UK +120 / SC -142
Total
O/U 53.5
Weather
78.7°F · 6.5 mph · Overcast
Venue
Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 4:15 PM ET
Final
UK 35 / SC 34
From the booth
The model favored SC to win, and the call missed.
Kentucky rides a 2-game winning streak into Columbia as a brand new ranked team, but South Carolina gets the nod at home in a conference matchup. The Gamecocks are favored by 2.5 and our model backs them at 67%, leaning on their offensive efficiency and point differential over a longer stretch despite dropping their last 2 contests. The Wildcats have been sharp lately, but the market and the data both like South Carolina here.
Why the model leans SC
- Favors South Carolina: SC+0.09Vegas point spread
- Favors South Carolina: SC+0.04Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games
- Favors South Carolina: SCPoint differential, last 5 games