From the booth

The model favored PITT to win, and the call landed.

Pitt's got this one at 70 percent on the moneyline, and the betting markets are backing that up with the smart money flowing to the Panthers at a 7 and a half point spread. Pittsburgh's got the better team on paper, their Elo rating gives them a legitimate edge, and that's why you're seeing the consensus line settle right around a touchdown. UCF's still got a puncher's chance at 30 percent, maybe catching Pitt a little earlier in the season before the Panthers hit their stride, but this is Pitt's game to lose on their home field.