Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ETTQL Stadium, CincinnatiFinal
Miami (OH)
M-OH · 1-1
31
Final
Cincinnati
CIN · 2-0
35
Final
Model called it
Spread
CIN -15.5
Moneyline
M-OH +550 / CIN -820
Total
O/U 49.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
TQL Stadium · Cincinnati
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
M-OH 31 / CIN 35
From the booth
The model favored CIN to win, and the call landed.
Cincinnati's sitting pretty as a heavy 15-and-a-half point favorite here, and the statistical model backs that up with a 91 percent home win probability. The Bearcats have been dominant on both sides of the ball in their last five games, posting better offensive efficiency and allowing fewer points per play on defense than Miami of Ohio. Vegas and the betting markets are aligned on this one, both strongly favoring the home team. This one's got blowout written all over it.
Why the model leans CIN
- Favors Cincinnati: CIN+0.09Vegas point spread
- Favors Cincinnati: CIN+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors Cincinnati: CINDefensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games