Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ETJack Trice Stadium, AmesFinal
Bowling Green
BGSU · 0-2
7
Final
Iowa State
ISU · 1-1
55
Final
Model called it
Spread
ISU -23.5
Moneyline
BGSU +1400 / ISU -4000
Total
O/U 43.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Jack Trice Stadium · Ames
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
BGSU 7 / ISU 55
From the booth
The model favored ISU to win, and the call landed.
Iowa State is sitting pretty here as a heavy favorite, up 92 to 8 in win probability. The Cyclones are getting a massive 23.5-point cushion from Vegas, and the betting market's backing that up too. Bowling Green's coming in as a real underdog, and while they've had some recent momentum, Iowa State's defense has been stingy over the last five games. Don't expect any drama in this one, folks, this is Iowa State's game to lose.
Why the model leans ISU
- Favors Iowa State: ISU+0.09Vegas point spread
- Favors Iowa State: ISU+0.02Betting-market win probability
- Favors Iowa State: ISUDefensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games