From the booth

The model favored KSU to win, and the call missed.

Kansas State comes into this one as the pick here, sitting at a 61% win probability over Cincinnati. The Wildcats have the edge across the board, whether you're looking at what Vegas has them favored by or how they've been moving the ball on their last five games. Cincinnati's playing the home game, but that's only worth 39% here because K-State's got the momentum and the statistical advantage to steal this one on the road in a Big 12 battle.