Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ETMountain America Stadium, TempePrime timeConference gameFinal
Baylor
BAY · 3-1
55
Final
Arizona State
ASU · 2-1
19
Final
Model missed
Spread
ASU -3.5
Moneyline
BAY +142 / ASU -172
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
89.9°F · 8.6 mph · Clear
Venue
Mountain America Stadium · Tempe
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ET
Final
BAY 55 / ASU 19
From the booth
The model favored ASU to win, and the call missed.
Big 12 Saturday night in Tempe, and these teams just played each other last month with Arizona State winning 27-24. The Sun Devils are rested off a bye and laying 3.5 at home. Our model backs them at 63%, riding their rest advantage and the market's lean, though Baylor's 3-game winning streak and suffocating defense at 11.7 points allowed over the last 3 keeps this one close.
Why the model leans ASU
- Favors Arizona State: ASU+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Arizona State: ASU+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Baylor: BAY+0.02Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games