Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ETTDECU Stadium, HoustonConference gameFinal
UCF
UCF · 3-1
17
Final
#20Houston
HOU · 3-1
27
Final
Model called it
Spread
HOU -11.5
Moneyline
UCF +350 / HOU -465
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
83.7°F · 11.6 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
TDECU Stadium · Houston
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
UCF 17 / HOU 27
From the booth
The model favored HOU to win, and the call landed.
Big 12 Saturday afternoon, and Houston's rolling. The Cougars just beat Georgia Southern 42-28 on the road and are ranked 20th after climbing from 25th. UCF's won 2 straight but is averaging just 24 points a game, while Houston's putting up 48.3 over its last 3. Our model has the Cougars at 78%, and Vegas agrees, laying 11.5 at home.
Why the model leans HOU
- Favors Houston: HOU+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Houston: HOU+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Houston: HOU+0.00Team rating (Elo) edge