Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ETGerald J. Ford Stadium, University ParkPrime timeFinal
Missouri State
MOST · 1-2
24
Final
#22SMU
SMU · 2-1
34
Final
Model called it
Spread
SMU -33.5
Moneyline
MOST +3500 / SMU -20000
Total
O/U 60.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET
Final
MOST 24 / SMU 34
From the booth
The model favored SMU to win, and the call landed.
SMU's got this one locked down at 96 percent win probability, and it's not even close. You're looking at a 33 and a half point spread here, the Mustangs are ranked 22nd in the country, and Vegas and the betting markets are both heavily favoring the home team. Missouri State's gonna need everything to go right as a significant underdog in this one, but SMU's the class of this matchup and they should take care of business at home.
Why the model leans SMU
- Favors SMU: SMU+0.07Vegas point spread
- Favors SMU: SMU+0.02Betting-market win probability
- Favors Missouri State: MOST+0.01Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games