Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ETAllegiant Stadium, Las VegasFinal
California
CAL · 2-2
31
Final
UNLV
UNLV · 2-2
39
Final
Model called it
Spread
UNLV -2.5
Moneyline
CAL +105 / UNLV -126
Total
O/U 52.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
CAL 31 / UNLV 39
From the booth
The model favored UNLV to win, and the call landed.
California heads to Las Vegas looking to bounce back after a 24-10 loss to Clemson at home, while UNLV just blew out Akron 38-10 on the road. The model gives the Rebels a slight edge at 55%, backing the Vegas line favoring UNLV by 2.5 points. The Rebels' offensive efficiency and the betting market both lean their way, but the Golden Bears have been sharper on defense and hold a point differential advantage over the recent stretch.
Why the model leans UNLV
- Favors UNLV: UNLV+0.11Vegas point spread
- Favors UNLV: UNLV+0.04Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games
- Favors UNLV: UNLV+0.03Betting-market win probability