Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ETDoak Campbell Stadium, TallahasseeConference gameFinal
Virginia
UVA · 3-1
7
Final
Florida State
FSU · 2-2
38
Final
Model missed
Spread
UVA -1.5
Moneyline
UVA -120 / FSU +100
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
82.2°F · 6.9 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
UVA 7 / FSU 38
From the booth
The model favored UVA to win, and the call missed.
Virginia comes to Doak Campbell on a roll, beating Delaware 42-3 at home while holding opponents to 14.7 points over its last 3 games. Florida State sits at 2-2 but knocked off Central Arkansas 34-7. The Cavaliers get the model at 56% and are favored by 1.5, a tight line that mirrors our confidence. Virginia's offensive efficiency and point differential give it the edge here.
Why the model leans UVA
- Favors Virginia: UVA+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors Virginia: UVA+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors Virginia: UVA+0.02Point differential, last 5 games