From the booth

The model favored USC to win, and the call landed.

Well, the model's got USC rolling here with a 94 percent win probability, and you can see why: the Trojans are getting the Vegas market at plus 22 and a half, and that spread is doing most of the heavy lifting in this forecast. Now Fresno State's got that slight edge in offensive EPA over their last five games, so they've been moving the ball a little better than USC lately, but that's just not enough to overcome the talent gap and the home field advantage here. The Trojans are ranked 14 in the AP poll, the Bulldogs are unranked, and Vegas is telling you this is a Trojan blowout waiting to happen.