Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ETBeaver Stadium, University ParkFinal
Buffalo
BUF · 1-1
13
Final
#14Penn State
PSU · 2-0
55
Final
Model called it
Spread
PSU -40.5
Moneyline
N/A
Total
O/U 49.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Beaver Stadium · University Park
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
BUF 13 / PSU 55
From the booth
The model favored PSU to win, and the call landed.
Penn State comes in here as a massive favorite at 40 and a half points, and the models are backing that up with a 99 percent win probability. The Nittany Lions have been the better team over their last five games and Vegas is pricing this as a blowout, plain and simple. Buffalo's got an uphill battle in Happy Valley, and everything we're seeing from the spread to the recent performance metrics says this one could get ugly real fast.
Why the model leans PSU
- Favors Penn State: PSU+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Penn State: PSU+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors Penn State: PSU+0.00Point differential, last 5 games