Week 5 slate
Week 5Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ETRyan Field, EvanstonPrime timeConference gameFinal
Penn State
PSU · 3-1
13
Final
Northwestern
NU · 2-1
34
Final
Model missed
Spread
PSU -2.5
Moneyline
PSU -142 / NU +120
Total
O/U 45.5
Weather
56.8°F · 8.7 mph · Clear
Venue
Ryan Field · Evanston
Kickoff
Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET
Final
PSU 13 / NU 34
From the booth
The model favored PSU to win, and the call missed.
Penn State's got a slight edge here, sitting at fifty-five percent to win, and the model's picking up on what Vegas is seeing with that two and a half point spread favoring the Nittany Lions. The Nitany Lions have the superior Elo rating and they've been the sharper team over their last five games, but this is a Big Ten battle and Northwestern's hanging right around that forty-five percent mark, which tells you Evanston's got enough to make this a real game on Saturday.
Why the model leans PSU
- Favors Penn State: PSU+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors Penn State: PSU+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors Penn State: PSUPoint differential, last 5 games