Week 6 slate
Week 6Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ETSpartan Stadium, East LansingConference gameFinal
Illinois
ILL · 2-3
38
Final
Michigan State
MSU · 2-3
37
Final
Model called it
Spread
ILL -2.5
Moneyline
ILL -137 / MSU +114
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
75.4°F · 14.8 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Spartan Stadium · East Lansing
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
ILL 38 / MSU 37
From the booth
The model favored ILL to win, and the call landed.
Big Ten conference game in East Lansing, and Illinois gets a chance to bounce back after dropping one to Purdue at home. Michigan State is spiraling, losing 3 straight and getting torched 31-3 by Wisconsin on the road. The model leans Illinois at 54%, backing what the market is already telling us at 2.5 points, buoyed by the Fighting Illini's edge in offensive efficiency and point differential over the last 5 games.
Why the model leans ILL
- Favors Illinois: ILL+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors Illinois: ILL+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Illinois: ILL+0.02Point differential, last 5 games