From the booth

The model favored UTSA to win, and the call landed.

UTSA's got this one favored at fifty-nine percent, and it all comes down to what they've done recently. The Roadrunners' offense has been clicking on all cylinders over their last five games, and that EPA efficiency advantage is real. Texas State's sitting at forty-one percent at home, and yeah, the spread says it's close at a point and a half, but the market's just not buying what the Bobcats are selling right now.