Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 PM ETCEFCU Stadium, San JosePrime timeFinal
Fresno State
FRES · 1-1
26
Final
San José State
SJSU · 2-1
10
Final
Model missed
Spread
N/A
Moneyline
N/A
Total
N/A
Weather
N/A
Venue
CEFCU Stadium · San Jose
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 PM ET
Final
FRES 26 / SJSU 10
From the booth
The model favored SJSU to win, and the call missed.
San José State's looking like the pick here with an 81 percent win probability, and that's despite the fact that Vegas actually likes Fresno State just slightly on the spread. The Spartans have got the betting market backing them too, and when you combine that with the model's overall assessment, it's San José State's game to lose in this one.
Why the model leans SJSU
- Favors Fresno State: FRES+0.10Vegas point spread
- Favors Fresno State: FRES+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Fresno State: FRES+0.01Point differential, last 5 games