Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ETAlbertsons Stadium, BoisePrime timeConference gameFinal
Utah State
USU · 1-3
18
Final
#22Boise State
BOIS · 3-1
37
Final
Model called it
Spread
BOIS -19.5
Moneyline
USU +860 / BOIS -1600
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
84°F · 2.7 mph · Clear
Venue
Albertsons Stadium · Boise
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
Final
USU 18 / BOIS 37
From the booth
The model favored BOIS to win, and the call landed.
Boise State rolls into a Pac-12 matchup at home sitting 3-1 and ranked 22nd after winning 3 straight, while Utah State limps in at 1-3. The Broncos are putting up 36 points and holding teams to 17 over their last 3 games, a stark contrast to the Aggies' struggling offense. Our model has Boise State at 94%, well ahead of a market laying 19.5 points.
Why the model leans BOIS
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.08Vegas point spread
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.02Betting-market win probability
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.00Point differential, last 5 games