Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ETSnapdragon Stadium, San DiegoPrime timeConference gameFinal
Texas State
TXST · 2-2
29
Final
San Diego State
SDSU · 1-3
31
Final
Model missed
Spread
TXST -9.5
Moneyline
TXST -330 / SDSU +260
Total
O/U 57.5
Weather
90.6°F · 5.9 mph · Clear
Venue
Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ET
Final
TXST 29 / SDSU 31
From the booth
The model favored TXST to win, and the call missed.
San Diego State is in freefall, dropping 3 straight and getting torched 41-16 last week. Texas State just demolished Incarnate Word 63-10 at home and the Bobcats are rolling with 2 wins in a row. Our model backs the Bobcats at 74%, and Vegas agrees, laying 9.5 points on the road.
Why the model leans TXST
- Favors Texas State: TXST+0.18Vegas point spread
- Favors Texas State: TXST+0.10Betting-market win probability
- Favors Texas State: TXST+0.01Point differential, last 5 games