Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ETYager Stadium, OxfordFinal
UConn
CONN · 2-1
21
Final
Miami (OH)
M-OH · 1-2
24
Final
Model called it
Spread
M-OH -3.5
Moneyline
CONN +140 / M-OH -170
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Yager Stadium · Oxford
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
CONN 21 / M-OH 24
From the booth
The model favored M-OH to win, and the call landed.
Miami's the slight favorite here at 58 percent to win, and the Vegas line backs that up with the Redhawks favored by three and a half. But don't sleep on UConn in this one, because their defense has been stingy over the last five games and they've shown some offensive punch as well. This feels like one where the home field advantage in Oxford is gonna be the difference maker, but the Huskies absolutely have a path to the upset if they can get after Miami's offense early.
Why the model leans M-OH
- Favors UConn: CONN+0.04Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Miami (OH): M-OH+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Miami (OH): M-OHBetting-market win probability