Week 2 slate
Week 2Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ETFAU Stadium, Boca RatonPrime timeConference gameFinal
Navy
NAVY · 1-0
30
Final
Florida Atlantic
FAU · 0-1
38
Final
Model missed
Spread
NAVY -4
Moneyline
NAVY -198 / FAU +164
Total
O/U 58.5
Weather
83.6°F · 9.5 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Venue
FAU Stadium · Boca Raton
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET
Final
NAVY 30 / FAU 38
From the booth
The model favored NAVY to win, and the call missed.
Navy's got this one favored at a 60% win probability, and the model likes the Midshipmen for some pretty clear reasons. Vegas has 'em at minus 4 on the road, the betting market agrees, and when you look at the last five games, Navy's been the more efficient offense and they've been winning by more. This is a same-conference matchup in the American, but FAU's gonna need to flip the script at home if they're gonna pull off the upset sitting at 40%.
Why the model leans NAVY
- Favors Navy: NAVY+0.13Vegas point spread
- Favors Navy: NAVY+0.06Betting-market win probability
- Favors Navy: NAVY+0.01Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games