From the booth

The model favored NEV to win, and the call missed.

Nevada's got this one favored at 66 percent, and the model likes what it's seeing with the Wolf Pack's Elo rating edge and some real momentum over the last five games showing up in both their point differential and offensive efficiency. Now, Vegas has Montana State getting three and a half, which is actually leaning the Bobcats' way slightly, but that rating advantage and the way Nevada's been playing lately is just enough to push the home team over the hump here. This is a close call on the numbers, but the home team's got the edge.