Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 10:30 PM ETHornet Stadium, MontgomeryPrime timeFinal
North Dakota State
NDSU · 3-0
31
Final
Sacramento State
SAC · 1-2
10
Final
Model called it
Spread
NDSU -27.5
Moneyline
NDSU -6500 / SAC +2000
Total
O/U 50.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Hornet Stadium · Montgomery
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 10:30 PM ET
Final
NDSU 31 / SAC 10
From the booth
The model favored NDSU to win, and the call landed.
North Dakota State comes in absolutely loaded here, and the numbers tell you exactly why. They're a -27.5 favorite on the Vegas board, and the statistical model has them winning this one 91 percent of the time over Sacramento State. The Bison bring a better overall team rating, they've got the betting market locked in their favor, and even though Sacramento State's shown some life offensively over their last five games, it's not nearly enough to close this gap. This is about as close to a foregone conclusion as you'll see in FCS football.
Why the model leans NDSU
- Favors North Dakota State: NDSU+0.15Vegas point spread
- Favors North Dakota State: NDSU+0.06Betting-market win probability
- Favors North Dakota State: NDSUTeam rating (Elo) edge