Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ETUniversity Stadium (NM), AlbuquerqueConference gameFinal
UTEP
UTEP · 1-3
7
Final
New Mexico
UNM · 3-1
61
Final
Model called it
Spread
UNM -23.5
Moneyline
UTEP +1100 / UNM -2100
Total
O/U 47.5
Weather
70.9°F · 2 mph · Clear
Venue
University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET
Final
UTEP 7 / UNM 61
From the booth
The model favored UNM to win, and the call landed.
New Mexico hosts UTEP in a Mountain West matchup, and the Lobos are rolling. They just beat New Mexico State 42-18 on the road and are averaging 39.3 points while holding opponents to 13.0 over their last 3 games. The model has the Lobos at 91%, well ahead of a market laying 23.5 points. The Miners have lost 2 straight and got torched 33-7 at home by Oregon State.
Why the model leans UNM
- Favors New Mexico: UNM+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors UTEP: UTEP+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors New Mexico: UNM+0.03Betting-market win probability