Week 1 slate
Week 1Sat, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ETDoak Campbell Stadium, TallahasseePrime timeFinal
New Mexico State
NMSU · 0-0
17
Final
Florida State
FSU · 0-0
34
Final
Model called it
Spread
FSU -31.5
Moneyline
NMSU +3000 / FSU -10000
Total
O/U 53.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET
Final
NMSU 17 / FSU 34
From the booth
The model favored FSU to win, and the call landed.
Florida State is absolutely crushing this matchup and the model's got them at 98 percent to win. The Seminoles are favored by 31 and a half points, they've got the better offense over their last five games, and they're outscoring opponents when it matters most. New Mexico State's looking at just a 2 percent shot here, and honestly, this one looks like it's Florida State's to lose from the opening kickoff.
Why the model leans FSU
- Favors Florida State: FSU+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Florida State: FSU+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors Florida State: FSU+0.00Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games