Week 2 slate
Week 2Sat, Sep 12 · 11:59 PM ETClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, HonoluluPrime timeFinal
New Mexico State
NMSU · 1-1
19
Final
Hawai'i
HAW · 0-2
29
Final
Model called it
Spread
N/A
Moneyline
N/A
Total
N/A
Weather
78.8°F · 15.3 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12 · 11:59 PM ET
Final
NMSU 19 / HAW 29
From the booth
The model favored HAW to win, and the call landed.
Hawai'i's looking like the pick here with a 78 percent win probability, and here's the thing: New Mexico State's actually got some momentum on the defensive side of the ball over their last five games, but it's not enough to overcome what the Rainbow Warriors bring to the table. The oddsmakers have this thing nearly a toss-up on the spread, but when you dig into Hawai'i's offensive efficiency lately, that's where the separation is. This one feels like a home team that's gonna control the pace and lean on that offensive advantage to pull away down the stretch.
Why the model leans HAW
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSU+0.10Vegas point spread
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSU+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSUBetting-market win probability