Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 2:00 PM ETScheumann Stadium, MuncieConference gameFinal
Toledo
TOL · 3-1
39
Final
Ball State
BALL · 1-3
24
Final
Model called it
Spread
TOL -21.5
Moneyline
TOL -1700 / BALL +890
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
64.6°F · 11.3 mph · Clear
Venue
Scheumann Stadium · Muncie
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 2:00 PM ET
Final
TOL 39 / BALL 24
From the booth
The model favored TOL to win, and the call landed.
Toledo rolls into Muncie looking to extend a 3-game winning streak, while Ball State has dropped 2 straight and sits at 1-3. The Rockets are clicking on offense, averaging 51 points over their last 3, and the market agrees. Toledo is favored by 21.5, and our model backs that decisively at 88%, pointing to Toledo's overall strength and the betting consensus.
Why the model leans TOL
- Favors Toledo: TOL+0.17Vegas point spread
- Favors Toledo: TOL+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Toledo: TOL+0.01Team rating (Elo) edge