Week 6 slate
Week 6Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ETDoyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling GreenConference gameFinal
Sacramento State
SAC · 1-4
10
Final
Bowling Green
BGSU · 1-4
38
Final
Model called it
Spread
BGSU -8.5
Moneyline
SAC +260 / BGSU -325
Total
O/U 43.5
Weather
72°F · 11.8 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
SAC 10 / BGSU 38
From the booth
The model favored BGSU to win, and the call landed.
A pair of 1-4 teams clash in a Mid-American conference game, but Bowling Green just beat Miami (OH) on the road while Sacramento State dropped 35-6 at home and has lost 3 straight. The model backs the Falcons at 77%, well ahead of the 8.5-point market line. Bowling Green's point differential and the betting consensus give them the edge, though the Hornets fresh off a bye present a live dog.
Why the model leans BGSU
- Favors Bowling Green: BGSU+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Bowling Green: BGSU+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Bowling Green: BGSU+0.03Point differential, last 5 games