Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ETCajun Field, LafayettePrime timeConference gameFinal
Arkansas State
ARST · 2-2
20
Final
Louisiana
UL · 3-1
23
Final
Model called it
Spread
UL -6.5
Moneyline
ARST +190 / UL -230
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
78.9°F · 8.4 mph · Rain, Overcast
Venue
Cajun Field · Lafayette
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ET
Final
ARST 20 / UL 23
From the booth
The model favored UL to win, and the call landed.
Louisiana hosts Arkansas State in a Sun Belt matchup Saturday night, and the Ragin' Cajuns have won 2 straight with their defense holding up over the last 3 games. Our model backs Louisiana at 72%, in line with a market laying 6.5 points at home. The Red Wolves bring a stout defense of their own, but Louisiana's point differential over the last 5 games and the betting market give the edge to the home team.
Why the model leans UL
- Favors Arkansas State: ARST+0.04Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Louisiana: UL+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors Louisiana: ULPoint differential, last 5 games