Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ETAmFirst Stadium, JacksonvillePrime timeConference gameFinal
Middle Tennessee
MTSU · 2-1
13
Final
Jacksonville State
JXST · 2-2
23
Final
Model called it
Spread
JXST -7.5
Moneyline
MTSU +235 / JXST -295
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
Final
MTSU 13 / JXST 23
From the booth
The model favored JXST to win, and the call landed.
Jacksonville State's got this one favored at 71 percent to win at home, and the smart money's backing that case. The Gamecocks have the Elo rating advantage and the betting market's leaning their way in what's a straight-up Conference USA battle. Now Middle Tennessee's got a slight edge in offensive efficiency over their last five games, but it's not enough to overcome Jacksonville State playing at home with a seven and a half point spread in their favor.
Why the model leans JXST
- Favors Jacksonville State: JXST+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Jacksonville State: JXST+0.02Vegas point spread
- Favors Middle Tennessee: MTSUOffensive EPA/play, last 5 games