Week 5 slate
Week 5Thu, Oct 1 · 8:00 PM ETAggie Memorial Stadium, Las CrucesPrime timeConference gameFinal
Western Kentucky
WKU · 1-3
13
Final
New Mexico State
NMSU · 1-3
34
Final
Model called it
Spread
NMSU -2.5
Moneyline
WKU +106 / NMSU -128
Total
O/U 56.5
Weather
72.7°F · 1.5 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces
Kickoff
Thu, Oct 1 · 8:00 PM ET
Final
WKU 13 / NMSU 34
From the booth
The model favored NMSU to win, and the call landed.
New Mexico State comes in as your home favorite here with a 59% win probability, and they've got Vegas backing them up with a 2.5-point spread. The Aggies have been the better team over their last five games with a positive point differential, which is giving them that edge at home in this Conference USA matchup. Western Kentucky's got a slight advantage in offensive efficiency lately, so the Mountaineers aren't gonna make this easy, but the math says this one belongs to the home team.
Why the model leans NMSU
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSU+0.10Vegas point spread
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSU+0.06Point differential, last 5 games
- Favors Western Kentucky: WKUOffensive EPA/play, last 5 games