Week 1 slate
Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ETPaycor Stadium, CincinnatiFinal
Buccaneers
TB · 0-0
27
Final
Bengals
CIN · 0-0
33
Final
Model called it
Spread
CIN -3.5
Moneyline
TB +164 / CIN -198
Total
O/U 50.5
Weather
84.7°F · 6 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
TB 27 / CIN 33
From the booth
The model favored CIN to win, and the call landed.
The Cincinnati Bengals are favored in this one, and they're sitting at a 65 percent win probability at home against Tampa Bay. The smart money's coming in on the Bengals, the betting market loves them, and they've got the healthier roster compared to the Bucs down the stretch. Now Tampa Bay's got a little help from where we are in the season, but it's not enough to overcome Cincinnati's advantages here, and that's why the Bengals are three and a half point favorites.
Why the model leans CIN
- Favors Bengals: CIN+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Bengals: CIN+0.04Overall injury burden
- Favors Buccaneers: TB+0.04Point in the season