Week 2 slate
Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · 8:20 PM ETGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas CityPrime timeFinal
Colts
IND · 0-1
30
Final
Chiefs
KC · 1-0
33
Final
Model called it
Spread
KC -6
Moneyline
IND +220 / KC -270
Total
O/U 46.5
Weather
73.3°F · 8.9 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 8:20 PM ET
Final
IND 30 / KC 33
From the booth
The model favored KC to win, and the call landed.
The Chiefs are your favorite today at 66 percent to win at home, and that's driven by the betting market which clearly likes Kansas City in this one. Vegas has them as a six point favorite, the Elo ratings give Patrick Mahomes and company the edge, and all of that's pushing the model toward the home team. The Colts are sitting at 34 percent, and they do get a small boost from where we are in the calendar, but it's not nearly enough to overcome the Chiefs' advantages in talent and public backing.
Why the model leans KC
- Favors Chiefs: KC+0.06Betting-market win probability
- Favors Colts: IND+0.04Point in the season
- Favors Chiefs: KC+0.04Vegas point spread