From the booth

The model favored HOU to win, and the call missed.

The Houston Texans come in with a slight edge here, holding a 51% win probability in what's basically a coin flip at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Vegas market's got them favored by a point and a half, and that's driving most of the difference, but the Colts aren't without their advantages, particularly on the defensive side where they've been stingy over their last five games. Indianapolis also catches Houston at a time when injury luck's working a little bit in their favor. This one's going to come down to execution, and honestly, it could go either way.