Week 3 slate
Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ETEverBank Stadium, JacksonvilleFinal
Patriots
NE · 1-1
6
Final
Jaguars
JAX · 1-1
35
Final
Model called it
Spread
JAX -3
Moneyline
NE +130 / JAX -155
Total
O/U 45.5
Weather
82.1°F · 5.6 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
NE 6 / JAX 35
From the booth
The model favored JAX to win, and the call landed.
Well, the Jaguars are sitting pretty at home with a 66 percent win probability over the Patriots, and the smart money agrees with that assessment. Jacksonville's got some health advantages working in their favor, and that betting market confidence is real, but don't sleep on New England here, because the Patriots have the Elo rating edge and they're playing later in the season when some teams start to click. It's a three-point spread, and this one's got some juice.
Why the model leans JAX
- Favors Jaguars: JAX+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Jaguars: JAX+0.04Overall injury burden
- Favors Patriots: NE+0.03Team rating (Elo) edge