Week 4 slate
Week 4Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ETCaesars Superdome, New OrleansPrime timeDivisionalFinal
Falcons
ATL · 1-2
45
Final
Saints
NO · 1-2
24
Final
Model called it
Spread
NO -1.5
Moneyline
ATL +105 / NO -125
Total
O/U 47.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans
Kickoff
Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET
Final
ATL 45 / NO 24
From the booth
The model favored ATL to win, and the call landed.
Monday night in the NFC South, and the Falcons just blew out the Packers 35-14 on the road. The Saints are 1-2 at home after a loss to the Raiders, and they're missing 3 defensive starters with Elliss, Jennings, and Granderson all out. Our model gives the Falcons a razor-thin 51% edge, while the Saints sit as 1.5-point favorites at the Superdome. The market and the model are split here.
Why the model leans ATL
- Favors Falcons: ATL+0.03Team rating (Elo) edge
- Favors Falcons: ATL+0.03Overall injury burden
- Favors Saints: NO+0.02Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games