Week 4 slate
Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ETAllegiant Stadium, Las VegasDivisionalFinal
Chiefs
KC · 3-0
30
Final
Raiders
LV · 3-0
27
Final
Model called it
Spread
KC -4.5
Moneyline
KC -225 / LV +185
Total
O/U 47.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
Final
KC 30 / LV 27
From the booth
The model favored KC to win, and the call landed.
Both teams roll in undefeated at 3-0, but the Chiefs get the nod in this AFC West showdown. Kansas City is favored by 4.5 and our model backs that at 75%, leaning on the betting market and a defensive edge that's held opponents to 16.7 points over the last 5 games. The Raiders just beat the Saints 35-27 on the road, but the Chiefs' injury report looks better than Las Vegas's heading into Sunday.
Why the model leans KC
- Favors Chiefs: KC+0.11Betting-market win probability
- Favors Chiefs: KC+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Chiefs: KC+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games