Week 4 slate
Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ETU.S. Bank Stadium, MinneapolisFinal
Dolphins
MIA · 0-3
10
Final
Vikings
MIN · 3-0
15
Final
Model called it
Spread
MIN -10
Moneyline
MIA +390 / MIN -520
Total
O/U 38.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ET
Final
MIA 10 / MIN 15
From the booth
The model favored MIN to win, and the call landed.
Minnesota sits unbeaten at 3-0 after beating the Buccaneers 23-16 on the road, but Miami comes in winless at 0-3 and getting outscored 28.7 points per game on defense. The model goes heavy on the Vikings at 79%, and the market agrees, laying 10 points. Minnesota's season-long strength and a Dolphins team averaging just 12.0 points over the last 3 games make this one look like a mismatch.
Why the model leans MIN
- Favors Vikings: MIN+0.10Betting-market win probability
- Favors Vikings: MIN+0.08Vegas point spread
- Favors Dolphins: MIA+0.02Point in the season