Week 4 slate
Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETHighmark Stadium, Orchard ParkDivisionalFinal
Patriots
NE · 1-2
29
Final
Bills
BUF · 3-0
26
Final
Model missed
Spread
BUF -7
Moneyline
NE +245 / BUF -305
Total
O/U 50.5
Weather
65.4°F · 12.7 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
NE 29 / BUF 26
From the booth
The model favored BUF to win, and the call missed.
AFC East showdown at Highmark, and the Bills are rolling at 3-0 while the Patriots limp in at 1-2 after a blowout loss on the road. Buffalo's averaging 33.7 points over the last 3 games with a stingy defense, and New England is missing 3 defensive backs. Our model has the Bills at 75%, right in line with a market laying 7 points at home.
Why the model leans BUF
- Favors Bills: BUF+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Bills: BUF+0.03Vegas point spread
- Favors Bills: BUF+0.03Overall injury burden