Week 5 slate
Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ETSoFi Stadium, InglewoodDivisionalFinal
Broncos
DEN · 2-2
23
Final
Chargers
LAC · 0-4
17
Final
Model called it
Spread
DEN -3.5
Moneyline
DEN -185 / LAC +154
Total
O/U 41.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET
Final
DEN 23 / LAC 17
From the booth
The model favored DEN to win, and the call landed.
AFC West Sunday and the Chargers are in freefall at 0-4, losers of 4 straight while averaging just 17.7 points over their last 3. Denver is 2-2 after a loss to the 49ers but sitting at 21.3 points per game. The model has the Broncos at 67%, aligned with a market laying 3.5 points on the road. Denver's overall strength carries the day here, though both teams are chewed up in the secondary with cornerback depth issues on both sides.
Why the model leans DEN
- Favors Broncos: DEN+0.11Betting-market win probability
- Favors Broncos: DEN+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Chargers: LAC+0.02Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games