Week 5 slate
Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ETAcrisure Stadium, PittsburghFinal
Colts
IND · 2-2
22
Final
Steelers
PIT · 2-2
34
Final
Model called it
Spread
PIT -2.5
Moneyline
IND +120 / PIT -142
Total
O/U 43.5
Weather
60.6°F · 12 mph · Rain, Overcast
Venue
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
IND 22 / PIT 34
From the booth
The model favored PIT to win, and the call landed.
Steelers and Colts both sit at 2-2 in an AFC matchup Sunday in Pittsburgh. The Colts have won 2 straight and are scoring 26.3 points over their last 3, but the Steelers get the nod at home with a 64% lean from our model. The market favors Pittsburgh by 2.5, and the model agrees on team strength and defensive efficiency.
Why the model leans PIT
- Favors Steelers: PIT+0.05Betting-market win probability
- Favors Steelers: PIT+0.02Team rating (Elo) edge
- Favors Steelers: PIT+0.02Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games