Week 5 slate
Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ETGillette Stadium, FoxboroughFinal
Raiders
LV · 3-1
17
Final
Patriots
NE · 2-2
45
Final
Model called it
Spread
NE -3.5
Moneyline
LV +164 / NE -198
Total
O/U 45.5
Weather
58.9°F · 7 mph · Overcast
Venue
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
LV 17 / NE 45
From the booth
The model favored NE to win, and the call landed.
The Raiders come in hot at 3-1 but just dropped one to the Chiefs 30-27 at home. New England sits at 2-2 after beating the Bills on the road, though the Patriots are shorthanded in the secondary with 3 cornerbacks out. The model likes the Patriots at 57%, backed by the betting market laying 3.5 points, but the Raiders have turnover margin and edge in overall health working in their favor.
Why the model leans NE
- Favors Patriots: NE+0.06Betting-market win probability
- Favors Raiders: LV+0.04Turnover differential, last 3 games
- Favors Raiders: LV+0.03Overall injury burden