Week 5 slate
Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ETCaesars Superdome, New OrleansFinal
Vikings
MIN · 4-0
23
Final
Saints
NO · 1-3
13
Final
Model called it
Spread
MIN -2.5
Moneyline
MIN -130 / NO +110
Total
O/U 41.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
MIN 23 / NO 13
From the booth
The model favored MIN to win, and the call landed.
Minnesota's 4-0 start heads to the Superdome to face a Saints team reeling at 1-3 with 2 straight losses. The Vikings are favored by 2.5 points, and our model goes with them at 55%, riding their turnover edge and a defense allowing just 9.7 points per game over the last 3 weeks. New Orleans has been leaky, giving up 32.3 per game in that same span, and they're banged up at linebacker without Elliss and Jennings.
Why the model leans MIN
- Favors Vikings: MIN+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Vikings: MIN+0.03Turnover differential, last 3 games
- Favors Saints: NO+0.02Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games