Week 6 slate
Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ETWembley StadiumNeutral siteDivisional
Texans
HOU · 1-4
38%
Win probability
Jaguars
JAX · 4-1
62%
Win probability
HOUJAX
Spread
JAX -2.5
Moneyline
HOU +120 / JAX -142
Total
O/U 42.5
Weather
56.1°F · 11.9 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Wembley Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET
From the booth
AFC South showdown at Wembley, and the Jaguars are rolling. Jacksonville's won 3 straight and just beat the Eagles 19-17 on a neutral site, while Houston limps in at 1-4 with David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre both doubtful. The model backs the Jaguars at 62%, and the market agrees, laying 2.5 points on Jacksonville's offensive and point differential edge over the last 5 games.
Why the model leans JAX
- Favors Jaguars: JAX+0.05Betting-market win probability
- Favors Texans: HOU+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Jaguars: JAX+0.03Point differential, last 5 games